In the highly competitive world of fantasy basketball, building a championship-winning team is an art form that requires a blend of strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. One of the critical aspects of success is relying on the consistent production of top-tier players, especially those picked beyond the elite draft tiers.
The Importance of Consistency
Joel Embiid stands out as a prime example of a high-risk, high-reward player. Projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game, Embiid's potential for fantasy basketball players is undeniable. Last season, Embiid averaged 61 fantasy points per game, reinforcing his value. However, his durability is a concern. Embiid has never played more than 68 games in a season and played only 39 games last year. This pattern of injury raises questions about his reliability over a long fantasy basketball season.
Durability Matters
In stark contrast, Nikola Jokic exemplifies the kind of reliability fantasy managers crave. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never dipped below 69 games in any season of his career. This level of consistency not only makes Jokic a safer pick but also provides a sense of security as fantasy stakes rise towards the end of the season.
Similarly, veteran players like LeBron James and Anthony Davis showcased robustness last season. James played 71 games, while Davis appeared in 76 games. Yet, it's essential to bear in mind their recent past; LeBron averaged 52 games over the previous three seasons, and Davis averaged 44. Given that LeBron is turning 40 this season, his usage and risk of injury might become increasingly pivotal for fantasy managers to consider. Notably, Davis has managed to play over 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year NBA career.
The Rise of Young Stars
Ja Morant's previous season was turbulent, missing 73 games due to suspension and injury. Despite this, when he's on the court, his production cannot be ignored. Over the past three seasons, Morant has averaged 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG). At just 25 years old, he represents a high-upside pick for managers willing to roll the dice on his availability.
The Veteran Presence
Kevin Durant remains a formidable force as he enters his 18th NBA season at 36 years old. Durant played 75 games last season, maintaining his status as both a reliable and prolific scorer in fantasy basketball.
Kyrie Irving presents a more complicated case. His scoring and efficiency are elite—averaging 26.7 PPG, 49.3% on field goals (FG%), 39.9% on three-pointers (3P%), and 91.2% on free throws (FT%) over his last five seasons. However, his availability has been a major drawback, averaging just 44.2 games per season in that span. Last season, Irving ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game but only 47th in total fantasy points, underscoring the impact that his limited availability can have.
Impact Players with Health Concerns
Zion Williamson's journey in the NBA has been marked by flashes of brilliance and extended absences due to injuries. He averaged 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons. Despite the promising numbers, Williamson played only 90 of 236 possible regular-season games during those three years. Still, he managed to set a career-high by playing 70 games last season and showed a glimpse of his potential with a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch late in the season.
Kawhi Leonard, another enigmatic talent, played 68 games last season and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, knee issues forced him to miss 12 of the Los Angeles Clippers' last 14 games, including the playoffs, stifling his otherwise solid fantasy contributions.
To navigate the fantasy basketball landscape successfully, managers must weigh the production potential against the risks posed by a player's injury history and age. Understanding these dynamics can mean the difference between a triumphant fantasy season and a disappointing one.