A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically dominated, winning 27 of 28 series. The sole exception was in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs staged a dramatic comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Out of those 28 series, 20 ended in sweeps. Currently, the Panthers are on the verge of getting the broom out for the first time since the Red Wings swept the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Oilers manage to extend the series with a Game 4 win, history does not favor them—25 of those 28 series concluded in no more than five games. Yet, despite these grim odds, the Oilers still believe they can alter the narrative.
Oilers' Current Struggles
This season, the Oilers have struggled mightily against the Panthers, going 0-5-0 so far. Although Edmonton showed signs of life in the third period on Thursday, scoring gritty goals courtesy of Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to trim the Panthers' lead to 4-3, it was their lackluster performance earlier in the game that stood out.
Heading into the third period of Game 3, the Oilers were down 4-1 on home ice in what was a must-win situation. Their hopes were further dashed during a disastrous 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida netted three goals. The Oilers had just tied the game at 1-all thanks to a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. Then, a turnover by Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko for a goal at 9:12, deflating the home crowd. By 13:57, another goal followed; this time, it was Sam Bennett, capitalizing on a Darnell Nurse turnover and stellar forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk. Aleksander Barkov capped off the scoring spree at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 opportunity that started deep inside Edmonton's attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Mistakes have been a common theme for Edmonton, and their star players have struggled to find the back of the net. While Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have managed to score, the Oilers' leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not.
This quintet also runs Edmonton's power play, which has been neutralized this series by Florida's penalty kill, boasting a perfect 10-for-10 record. Edmonton's power play was clicking at over 37% heading into the series, best in the postseason. Although McDavid has contributed, assisting on three of the Oilers' four goals in this series, the rest of the stars have yet to make their mark in the Stanley Cup Final. McDavid is on track to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, matching a feat accomplished by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988.
Taking Responsibility
The players realize the gravity of their situation. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well, and just can’t seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," admitted Draisaitl. He continued, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Stuart Skinner added, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch echoed the sentiments of belief: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
He continued, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner also noted the team's slow collapse: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl reflected on the steep challenge ahead: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."
As the Oilers face a monumental challenge, their resilience and belief will be key factors in whether they can defy the odds and mount a historic comeback.